Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar : Neutral. If a trader is flat at the close of a trading session, anything done during that particular session is considered a day trade. The implications are for a high in gold over the next few weeks- but at what level? Read below or Add a comment. Your articles just solve our problems in detail.




Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar : Neutral. Have a question about trading the US Dolla r? The US Dollar fell for a second consecutive week as the Fed rate hike outlook continued to deteriorate. Geopolitical jitters are almost trxder a big part of that story, even if the narrative has somewhat shifted from US tensions with Russia and North Korea to EU politics. Homegrown factors have also emerged however amid growing worries about slowing economic growth.

An ominous picture is painted by the closely watched GDPNow model from the Atlanta Fed. It updates quarterly GDP growth projections with each incoming bit of relevant economic data. That forecast now predicts that output will add just 0. That is far weaker than the percent range forex trader resume example 30 by the markets. This disparity will be addressed as the first official estimate of first-quarter GDP growth crosses the wires in the week ahead.

Consensus forecasts already forex trader resume example 30 to a slowdown, with the annualized growth rate seen ticking down to 1. US news-flow has sharply forexx relative to baseline projections recently however, opening the door for a still weaker result. The GDP report is set for release on Friday however, the currency at the mercy of other catalyst in the interim. On this front, the French presidential election set for this weekend may very well prove formative.

Voters will go to the polls trsder narrow their options from four to two contenders. The latest polling data has the field clustered near the 20 percent support mark. That makes the possibility that they reusme be stuck with best forex trading companies in dubai 042114240 between two eurosceptics — Marine Le Pen on the right and Jean-Luc Melechon on the left — uncomfortably high. Trrader markets will be most pleased if Ms Le Pen and Mr Melechon are eliminated at this stage in the process, although this seems unlikely.

The next-best option — and one that ought to be supportive for risk appetite — is that Ms Le Pen should put option be exercised early hominids to face a strong opponent in the second round. Trrader here, investors would probably prefer centrist Emmanuel Macron to soft-right Francois Fillon. An outcome that boosts sentiment will make for a backdrop that is more conducive to Fed fored, all else being equal.

That means that a second round with at least one palatable option — especially if that is Mr Macron — is likely to send the greenback higher ahead of the GDP report. Headlines out of Washington DC are another important consideration after US President Donald Trump tradwr he will unveil a tax reform proposal mid-week. With the tradeer round of the French presidential elections due out Sunday, April 23, traders have remained noncommittal about pushing various FX pairs in any concerted direction.

Ahead of forex trader resume example 30 vote, the overall frontrunner, Emmanuel Macron — who, according examplr French polling institute Ifop has the best chance to beat right-wing populist Marine Le Pen in a second round runoff — has seen his odds of winning increase after a brief dip the past two weeks. Traders should brace themselves for a gap open at the market on Sunday. The results should begin to trickle out around CEST in Paris, or roughly EDT in New York.

By the time markets open in New York three hours later, any late results should be declared already and markets will know who is advancing in tradwr the second round of voting on May 7. The best case scenario for the Euro? The worst case scenario for the Euro? Overall, if Emmanuel Macron makes it into the second round of voting, as the candidate exqmple the best odds to beat Marine Examplw Pen, then the Euro could see a relief rally.

Although the European Central Bank is meeting on Thursday this week, the policy meeting is as close to an afterthought as possible. Factoring in the French elections, and it all but guarantees ECB President Mario Draghi and the Governing Council will use the policy meeting as a stopgap until their next round of SEPs come out in June. To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio dailyfx. Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time Examppe feed and Twitter at CVecchioFX.

Fundamental Forecast for JPY: Bearish. The flash index for new export orders rose to The output component of the PMI was a preliminary However, that economic growth has yet to lift inflation. Figures to be edample this coming week are expected to show that core consumer prices increased by just 0. To put that in context, a core inflation rate of 0. Moreover, core inflation data for Tokyo in April — released a month wxample than the nationwide figures — are expected to show a 0.

Tiny long positions with close stops could therefore be profitable, with a break above near-term resistance at On the downside, a stop at would limit losses if the downtrend resumes. To contact Martin, email him at martin. Follow Martin on Twitter MartinSEssex. Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Neutral. The big news out of the U. The move was widely-applauded as astute political strategy from PM May, as she tfader use resmue opportunity to cauterize additional support for her Conservative party ahead of Brexit negotiations.

More likely, however, would be that these rapid price gains were elicited from short-covering as yet another dash of uncertainty entered the picture. Investors generally eschew uncertainty by limiting risk: Given the brisk declines in GBP in the post-Brexit environment, this would allude to a fairly-sizable net short position in the forex trader resume example 30.

And the answer to that question should be derived from whether or not one thinks that early elections will create any additional hawkishness at the Bank of England, as the BoE has been the predominant driver of GBP even-before the referendum. And considering the fact that a greater Tory majority would simply give the U. As importers adjust prices-higher to protect margins by offsetting those out-sized losses in GBP-cross ratesinflationary pressure increases until, eventually, the BoE is forced away from their dovish policy tader.

But is more political uncertainty really going to directly compel the BoE to get less dovish? The big item on the economic calendar for the U. The expectation is for 1. More opportunistic for GBP-volatility will be the next Bank of England Super Thursday event on May 12 th. This is when the Bank will publish updated inflation forecasts and this is when markets can get a better pulse on just how concerned the bank might be on the topic resumf rising inflationary forces.

There is scant expectation for any movement in rates at that meeting; but given that the last BoE rate decision produced the first vote for a rate hike post-Brexit, the point of interest will be in the details to see as to whether or not any other members of the MPC are growing more comfortable with the idea of tighter policy options in the near-term. Until this recent bullish move is confirmed by follow-thru price action, or by a deeper shift within the Bank of England away from the current dovish policy outlay, the forecast forez GBP will be held at neutral.

Rrsume Forecast for Gold: Neutral. Gold prices are poised to close higher for the fifth consecutive week with the precious metal up more than 2. The advance comes amid softness in broader risk assets with global equity markets suffering minor losses ahead of the extended holiday weekend. Comments made by President Donald Trump regarding overvaluation in the greenback further fueled the advance, taking prices through key regions of resistance on Wednesday. The DXY is down more roughly 1.

That said, while the risk does remain for further dollar losses near-term, the knee-jerk trump rally in gold is unlikely to sustain prices at these levels and leaves the immediate advance vulnerable heading into desume week. The implications are for a high in gold over the forex trader resume example 30 few weeks- resumme at what level? From a technical standpoint, the close of the week will be telling with a hold below basic ersume resistance extending off the highs leaving the immediate advance vulnerable.

A closer look at forx daily chart further shows how precarious this break is. Bottom line- a weekly close above this confluence region would be needed to validate the breakout in gold prices resuje such a scenario targeting the May high at backed by the A close back below would highlight the risk of this being a failed breakout. Follow Michael on Twitter MBForex contact him at mboutros dailyfx. Fundamental Forecast for CAD: Bearish.

The Canadian dollar looks likely to test its recent low against the USDopening the way for further falls. Price action this week had been driven by a slightly weaker oil complex, pushing the Loonie lower, along with ongoing trade wrangles with the US. The news is not all negative for the Canadian Dollar with the latest Bank of Resme policy meeting April 12 producing a slightly hawkish tone. On the charts, the March 9, USDCAD high looms large, with a break higher leaving room for the pair to move gains made in early Chart: USDCAD Weekly Timeframe August — April To contact Nick, email him at Nicholas.

Don't examplw FX but want to learn more? Read the DailyFX Trading Guides. Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Bearish. Would you like to know more about financial-market trading? The DailyFX free trading guide is forez you. Can they hope for a better one ahead? International tensions over North Korea and Syria still simmer, damming the global risk appetite which rather benefits vorex Aussie when in full flood.

These things overwhelmingly tend to go to a second runoff. That means a tangible result may not come until May 7. But a strong showing this week from the anti-EU Marine Le Pen would see the markets heading for perceived haven assets in a big way. Again, this might bode ill for the Aussie, despite the relatively strong performance of its home economy.

Commodity prices forex trader resume example 30 also play a part and there, too, seems little cause for hope. Its price has fallen sharply since February as markets fret about steel oversupply in China, and the long-term durability of raw-material demand there, for all its current vigor. We will get an official look at Australian consumer prices for the first quarter of this year on Tuesday.

They rose at a ecample 1. That could support the Aussie. However, it exaample probably take forex trader resume example 30 lot more than one data point to reaume that old thesis in serious jeopardy. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Phillip Lowe will also give a speech on Tuesday. We can have no idea of what he may say, of course, but a guess that he might mention a stronger Australian Dollar as an undesirable policy headwind would be an educated one.

RBA officials have after all said this before. Given all of the above, a bearish Australian Dollar call it has to be for the week ahead, but keep an eye on commodity prices, CPI and that Tuesday speech as possible threats to that prognosis. There may forexx justifiably hope for better times ahead though. Trade data out of Japan and growth numbers f rom China both speak to a global-trade economy starting to really move again.

Contact and follow David on Twitter: DavidCottleFX. The New Zealand dollar looks set to resume its downward path, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will not stand in its way. After Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler left interest rates unchanged at 1. This is an encouraging move, but further depreciation is needed to achieve more balanced growth. Exchange-rate and interest-rate sensitive sectors such as tourism and construction generate tdader activity and jobs to support income.

Ersume the recent post-FOMC relief rally, the Kiwi dollar continues to weaken. Chart: NZDUSD Daily-Timeframe November 23, — March 24, Gold Prices May Rise as Soft US GDP Cools Fed Rate Hike Bets. EUR Could Remain Strong After Draghi Notes Downside Risks Diminishing. Crude Oil at Major Decision Point. US Dollar Bracing for French Election, Trump Tax Plan, Exam;le Data. Fundamental analysis, economic and market themes. US Dollar focused on 1Q GDP data amid slowdown fears.

Risk-positive French election outcome to boost greenback. Previous Articles From USD. Get Ready for Gap Open in Forex trader resume example 30 Thanks to French Election. News events, market reactions, and macro trends. Previous Articles From EUR. Japanese Yen: No End In Sight For Accommodative Tradfr Policy. Financial markets, economics, fundamental and technical analysis.

Check out the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage of key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for next week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar. Previous Articles From JPY. Forexx Pound Soars As Theresa May Announces Early Elections. Previous Articles From GBP. Short term trading and intraday technical levels. Gold Technical Analysis: Rally Approaching Critical Resistance at Join Michael for Live Weekly Trading Webinars on Mondays at GMT ET.

Previous Articles From GOLD. Canadian Dollar Likely to Weaken Further forex trader resume example 30 March Low Nears. Fundamental analysis and financial markets. Lower oil price undercuts the Loonie. US-Canada trade worries continue to weigh on the trrader. See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage for key risk event impacting FX markets is scheduled for next week rfsume the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

Previous Articles From CAD. Australian Dollar Looks Short Of Clear Positives. Financial markets, economics, journalism and fundamental analysis. Whether via nervy risk appetite or weak commodity prices, bulls have their work cut out. Consumer price data may offer some hope. Previous Articles From AUD. Outlook for NZDUSD - Bearish. The Central Bank left rates unchanged but hawkish talk pushed the Reesume dollar lower.

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and gorex what live coverage for key event risk impacting FX markets is forex trader resume example 30 exqmple next week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar. Previous Articles From NZD. DailyFX resumee the news and education website of IG Group.




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